Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC-USD Finally Break Above $100K or Is a Major Correction Coming?
Bitcoin’s $100K Struggle: Where Is BTC Heading Next?
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has been locked in a narrow trading range between $94,000 and $100,000 for the past two weeks, testing both bullish momentum and investor patience. The cryptocurrency has struggled to break past $100K, despite strong institutional adoption and ongoing support from companies like MicroStrategy and GameStop.
With Bitcoin now trading at $95,652, down 14% from its all-time high of $108,786 reached just 29 days ago, investors are wondering: Is Bitcoin gearing up for a breakout, or is another sharp correction incoming?
ETF Outflows and Institutional Selling: Is Smart Money Leaving BTC?
One of the biggest concerns for Bitcoin right now is the recent ETF outflows. Between Feb. 10 and Feb. 14, over $651.83 million was withdrawn from spot Bitcoin ETFs, marking the first net weekly outflow in over six weeks.
This drop in ETF inflows has coincided with Bitcoin’s stagnation, indicating that some institutional investors may be taking profits or waiting for regulatory clarity before committing further capital.
Despite these outflows, institutional demand remains strong. Analysts at JPMorgan have included Bitcoin in their quarterly guide, suggesting that traditional financial institutions still see long-term value in BTC. Furthermore, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley has stated that banks will become a major catalyst for Bitcoin adoption over the next few years.
However, with top 25 funds liquidating roughly 19,000 BTC in Q4, there’s no denying that some institutions are locking in profits after Bitcoin’s massive rally in 2024.
Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels for BTC-USD
Bitcoin’s technical setup suggests that the market is currently in a period of consolidation, with traders waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown.
- Resistance at $99,000 - $100,000: Bitcoin has struggled to break past this key level. If BTC can close above $100K with strong volume, it could trigger a new bullish leg toward $110,000 - $120,000.
- Support at $94,000: If Bitcoin fails to hold this level, a drop toward $90,000 is likely. Below that, the next major support sits at $88,000, which could trigger a sharper sell-off.
- 50-day EMA acting as a pivot: Bitcoin is currently hovering near its 50-day EMA, meaning that a break above $100K or below $94K will likely determine the next major move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 41, signaling slightly bearish momentum, while the MACD recently turned negative, suggesting that Bitcoin could be at risk of further downside if buyers don’t step in soon.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Is BTC Losing Its Safe-Haven Appeal?
Another major factor affecting Bitcoin’s price movement is its evolving relationship with gold.
A recent econometric analysis using data from 2014 to 2024 has shown that Bitcoin and gold have historically had little to no correlation. However, since the pandemic, Bitcoin has become slightly more reactive to gold price movements, with impulse response functions (IRF) showing increased sensitivity to gold price shocks.
This suggests that while Bitcoin has traditionally been viewed as a risk asset, it is now gaining characteristics of a safe-haven asset like gold. However, with inflation concerns rising and the Fed maintaining higher interest rates, investors may be choosing gold over Bitcoin in the short term, limiting BTC’s upside potential.
Regulatory Uncertainty and Trump’s Crypto Plans: A Key Market Catalyst
One of the biggest wild cards for Bitcoin is regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. While President Donald Trump has promised to support Bitcoin and crypto, the market is still waiting for concrete actions, such as:
- A Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, as promised during his campaign.
- A clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.
- Changes to U.S. tax policies regarding crypto investments.
Right now, Bitcoin traders are stuck in limbo, waiting for real policy changes rather than pro-crypto rhetoric.
Additionally, recent interest rate concerns have weighed on Bitcoin, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish stance. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week showed that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, making an interest rate cut unlikely anytime soon.
Since higher interest rates reduce the appeal of riskier assets like Bitcoin, traders are closely watching Fed policy updates to determine the next direction for BTC-USD.
Will Bitcoin Break $100K or Drop to $90K?
Bitcoin is currently at a critical inflection point, and the next major move will depend on:
- Can BTC hold $94,000? If Bitcoin stays above this key support, it could consolidate and attempt another push past $99K - $100K.
- Will ETF inflows recover? If institutional demand picks back up, Bitcoin could rally toward $110,000. However, continued outflows may trigger a deeper correction.
- What will Trump and the Fed do? Clear pro-crypto policies or interest rate cuts could spark a major rally, while further delays may lead to extended consolidation.
Final Verdict: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Right now, Bitcoin remains a long-term buy, but traders should be cautious about short-term volatility. If BTC breaks above $100K, we could see a rapid push toward $110K - $120K. However, if Bitcoin drops below $94K, expect a retest of $90K - $88K.
Long-term investors should continue accumulating BTC on dips, while short-term traders may want to wait for a breakout above $100K or a breakdown below $94K before making their next move.
Bitcoin is still on track to reach $150K - $200K by the end of 2025, but for now, the $100K barrier remains the key psychological level to watch.
