Bitcoin (BTC) Holds $97K – Can It Break Past $100K or Face a Sell-Off?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Faces Critical Resistance as Market Awaits Next Catalyst

BTC Price Holds Near $97,000 Amid Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is currently trading at $97,783, stabilizing after a volatile session that saw it dip to $95,707 before briefly touching $100,154. Despite a 0.48% daily gain, BTC remains down 6.50% over the past week, reflecting heightened investor caution. With rising futures interest and increased liquidation activity, Bitcoin's price action remains a battleground between bulls attempting to reclaim $100,000 and bears looking to push it lower.

U.S. Jobs Data Sparks Speculation on Fed Rate Policy

The latest U.S. jobs report showed 143,000 jobs were added in January, falling short of expectations of 170,000, but the unemployment rate declined to 4.0% from 4.1%. While a weaker labor market traditionally fuels speculation about Federal Reserve rate cuts, analysts remain skeptical that any easing will occur in Q1 2025. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against tightening monetary policy, could benefit if rate cut expectations increase. However, conflicting data—such as rising hourly wages at 0.5%, exceeding forecasts of 0.3%—suggests inflationary pressures remain, potentially delaying any Fed policy shifts.

BTC Trading Volume Climbs as Institutional Interest Grows

Bitcoin's trading volume surged 14.65% to $52.33 billion, signaling increased participation amid the uncertainty. Open interest in BTC futures also edged 1.18% higher to $59.44 billion, reflecting heightened trader engagement. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance rose 0.1% to 60.8%, indicating capital consolidation in BTC while altcoins lag behind. The market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with traders monitoring economic data and regulatory shifts for the next breakout trigger.

Liquidations Suggest Market Indecision

Total Bitcoin liquidations over the last 24 hours amounted to $64.64 million, with $34.26 million from longs and $30.39 million from shorts. This relatively balanced liquidation activity indicates that neither bulls nor bears have gained definitive control, leading to choppy price action around key levels.

Trump’s Tariff Threat Fuels Market Jitters

Bitcoin and other risk assets faced renewed selling pressure after Donald Trump warned of imposing reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries. Although details remain unclear, the potential for escalating global trade tensions has dampened sentiment, triggering a broad market retreat. BTC briefly fell 1% to $95,853 before rebounding, reflecting investor sensitivity to macroeconomic developments. If tariffs disrupt global liquidity flows, risk assets like Bitcoin could see increased volatility.

Key BTC Price Levels to Watch

Bitcoin remains confined within a trading range of $93,000 to $107,000, with immediate support at $95,500 and resistance at $100,000. A breakout above $100,154 could pave the way for a push toward $107,000, while a failure to hold $95,000 could see BTC retest $90,000 or lower.

Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50, signaling weak bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains bearish, indicating potential downward pressure. However, if BTC maintains $95,700 as support, a rebound toward $101,500 is still in play.

Whale Activity and Miner Pressure Add to Volatility

Over 20,000 BTC ($1.94 billion) moved out of long-term holders’ wallets in the past four days, suggesting that large investors are taking profits amid market uncertainty. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders sits at 3.5, indicating that many are selling at profitable levels—a behavior typically seen before major market shifts. Meanwhile, miners face declining profitability, forcing some to liquidate holdings, historically a precursor to temporary price drops followed by mid-term recoveries.

BTC Faces a Make-or-Break Moment in February

Bitcoin’s fifth and final wave in its long-term cycle remains uncertain. If BTC holds above $93,910-$95,700, bullish momentum could extend toward $142,000-$155,000 in the coming months. However, a breakdown below $90,000 would signal the beginning of a deeper market correction. Traders are now watching for whether BTC forms a local bottom or signals the end of its cycle, making February a critical month for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

That's TradingNEWS