Inflows Surge as Bitcoin Spot ETFs Shatter Records and Draw Institutional Capital
The past week has seen Bitcoin ETFs on the U.S. exchanges rake in unprecedented capital, with net inflows soaring to $917 million on April 23 alone. This marked the fourth consecutive day of positive ETF flows, underscoring a powerful shift in institutional appetite for BTC-USD. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge with $643.2 million of fresh assets, while Ark’s ARKB and Fidelity’s FBTC each contributed $129.5 million and $124.4 million, respectively. Grayscale’s GBTC followed with $29.8 million, and VanEck’s HODL added $5.3 million. In contrast, only Bitwise’s BITB experienced a modest outflow of $15.2 million. Across all spot products, the cumulative ETF holdings now stand at approximately $100.6 billion, representing nearly 90 percent of the $112.6 billion total crypto fund AUM—a testament to Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto investment landscape.
Institutional Launch: Twenty One Capital’s $3.6 Billion Bitcoin SPAC Enters the Fray
A new SPAC-backed vehicle, Twenty One Capital, has emerged with a starting endowment of 42,000 BTC-USD—valued at roughly $85,000 per coin—implying an enterprise valuation of $3.6 billion including debt. The reverse merger with Cantor Equity Partners follows its $100 million IPO in 2023. SoftBank, Bitfinex and Tether have pledged the initial crypto contributions, with Tether alone supplying at least $1.5 billion worth of BTC. Cantor Equity Partners plans to bolster the treasury with a $385 million convertible bond and a $200 million private placement, funding further Bitcoin purchases. Helmed by a veteran from the Strike platform, this venture echoes MicroStrategy’s treasury-heavy strategy, aiming to capture scale-driven upside as institutional demand intensifies.
Long-Term Holders Accumulate $26 Billion of Value During April’s Rally
On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal that long-term holders (LTHs)—those who have held BTC-USD for more than 155 days—watched their realized market cap increase from $345 billion on April 1 to $371 billion by April 23. That $26 billion surge speaks to the resilience of veteran investors through a 30 percent drawdown that saw BTC-USD slide from its year-to-date peak into early April. Historical patterns from 2013, 2017 and 2021 underscore how such corrections often flush weaker hands before rallying to fresh highs. In contrast, short-term holders (STHs) largely capitulated during the dip, realizing losses before recent price strength nudged them back into profit.
Derivatives Players Flip Bullish, Loading Up on $95K and $110K Call Options
Bitcoin’s options market on Deribit has undergone a dramatic sentiment reversal. Two weeks ago, put open interest concentrated at the $70,000 strikes for April expiry, reflecting pervasive caution. This week, April $95,000 calls have exploded in volume, with traders banking on renewed upside. Even longer-dated June $110,000 calls have amassed $437 million of open interest, a sign that speculators are eyeing a swift reclamation of Bitcoin’s all-time high above $108,000 seen in January. The shift from defensive puts to aggressive calls underpins the view that risk assets will continue to benefit from easing trade tensions and accommodative monetary policy bets.
On-Chain Confidence: 16.7 Million BTC-USD in Profit Flags “Threshold of Optimism”
Currently, 16.7 million BTC-USD addresses sit in profit, comfortably above the so-called “threshold of optimism” that has preceded past bull-run accelerations. As Bitcoin decouples from equities and gold’s safe-haven allure (with gold rising to $3,500 per ounce), large holders’ conviction is reinforced by near-zero correlation to U.S. stocks during tariff-driven volatility. Exchange outflows have also mirrored late-2023 patterns, with whales scooping up coins amid retail panic, further tightening supply.
Macro Catalysts: Trade-War De-escalation and Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Fuel Demand
U.S.–China trade rhetoric has softened, with President Trump publicly signalling willingness to reduce tariffs and Treasury Secretary Bessent deeming the 145 percent levies “unsustainable.” Reports of Japanese tariff talks beginning April 30 have also buoyed global risk appetite, channeling flows into Bitcoin and other risk assets. Concurrently, Fed officials including Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Governor Christopher Waller have suggested a June rate cut is on the table should labor-market data deteriorate. The CME FedWatch Tool currently prices a 60 percent probability of a June easing, eroding real yields and enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Technical Landscape: Navigating Resistance at $94,700 and Support Down to $91,700
On the one-hour chart, BTC-USD’s rejection at $94,700 triggered a retest of $91,700, carving a micro-bearish series of lower highs and lows amid rising red volume. A potential scalp setup emerges if $91,700 holds and buyers step in, eyeing a recovery toward $93,000. The four-hour view shows a rounded top formation around $94,700, with consolidation between $92,000 and $92,500 offering a base for a renewed push. The daily chart charts Bitcoin’s ascent from $74,434 to $94,700, now marked by mild pullbacks into the $83,000–$85,000 band. Key Fibonacci supports at 0.500 ($84,567) and 0.618 ($82,176) align with structural floors, while immediate resistance lines up at $94,200 and $94,650 before eyeing $95,500–$96,200.
Oscillators and Moving Averages Paint a Mixed But Lean-Bullish Picture
The RSI stands at 64—neither overbought nor oversold—while the Stochastic (92) and CCI (187) flash overextension. Yet the MACD remains positive at 1,935, confirming underlying momentum. All EMAs and SMAs from 10 to 200 periods are sloping upward, underscoring a pervasive uptrend across timeframes. The 10-period EMA at $88,552 and the 200-period SMA at $88,689 serve as dynamic support, while moving average alignment continues to validate the bullish thesis.
Decision Point: Is BTC-USD a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Underpinning inflows, on-chain strength and ETF adoption forge a compelling bull case for BTC-USD. The alignment of long-term EMAs, robust ETF demand and institutional vehicles like Twenty One Capital suggest substantial tailwinds remain intact. However, short-term oscillator exhaustion and the rounded top on the four-hour chart caution that a retracement to $90,500–$91,700 is probable before the next leg up. In light of the data, a Buy on pullbacks into the $91,700–$92,000 zone appears the most prudent strategy, with a Hold stance for those currently in profit above $94,000 and tight scaling of positions should price breach below key support. Only a sustained drop beneath the $90,000 floor would warrant shifting to a Sell thesis.
