Ripple Price Strengthens at $2.09 — Is the Next Upside Target $3.97?
With institutional deals setting the stage and Asia’s first XRP tracker fund live, could XRP‑USD surge past $5.02 next? | That's TradingNEWS
Institutional Pre‑IPO Pricing and XRP‑USD
Versan Alajjarah’s provocative thesis argues that the XRP‑USD valuation has been quietly negotiated by central banks, JP Morgan, BlackRock and the IMF long before the token ever reached retail traders. Drawing parallels to pre‑IPO roadshows, Alajjarah contends that major financial players secured bespoke pricing for XRP to serve as their backbone for cross‑border settlements. He points to Ripple’s undisclosed integrations with various sovereign payment systems as evidence of an institutional “true value” locked in well above today’s spot rate. While he stops short of naming a precise figure, his model envisions XRP trading in three‑ to four‑digit territory once those corridors are fully activated, dwarfing the current $2.09 quote that speculators see on exchanges.
Volatility Contraction: Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Targets
On the 4‑hour XRP‑USD chart, the tightening Bollinger Bands around the $2.00–$2.10 range signal a compression of volatility. This “squeeze” often presages a directional thrust. Historically, XRP’s bands have narrowed before explosive moves—most recently a 490% climb from $0.49 to $2.90 in late 2024. Simultaneously, the 3‑day Fibonacci retracements from the $0.50 low to the $3.39 peak mark the 61.8% level at $2.05 as the first barrier. A sustained break above this zone could clear the path toward the 78.6% retracement at $2.53 and potentially retest the $3.39 all‑time high. Extended projections place key targets at the 127.2% extension near $3.97 and the 161.8% extension around $5.02, aligning with the three‑digit aspirations voiced by institutional backers.
Whale Accumulation, Exchange Outflows and Network Activity
On‑chain metrics reveal that addresses holding 10–100 million XRP now command 11.83% of the total token supply, up from 10.91% a month earlier. Giants with over 1 billion XRP have lifted their stake to 39.37% from 37.67%. This persistent accumulation by whales contrasts sharply with exchange inflows, which have collapsed from a 2.7 billion daily peak to just 74 million XRP—suggesting that large holders are removing supply from the market rather than selling. Yet active daily addresses fell from 612,000 in mid‑March to roughly 36,000 by April 17, indicating that while whales buy, network usage among smaller participants has retreated, warning that any rally may initially be driven by concentrated deep‑pocket interests rather than broad retail enthusiasm.
Futures, Spot ETF Ambitions and Spotlight on Regulation
The forthcoming launch of XRP futures on the Coinbase Derivatives Exchange under CFTC oversight on April 21 promises to inject fresh liquidity and give institutions hedging tools—catalysts that historically pump altcoin valuations. Rumors swirl of spot ETF filings by Bitwise, Grayscale and ProShares, and a more favorable SEC under new leadership could clear the way. Ripple’s recent legal triumph—with a proposed $50 million settlement in its SEC battle—has been hailed as a “symbolic victory” by CEO Brad Garlinghouse and restores faith among compliance‑focused investors. That clarity, combined with easier ETF access, could dramatically lower the cost of capital for XRP‑USD and accelerate adoption.
Asia’s First XRP Tracker Fund: HashKey Capital Partnership
Ripple’s alliance with HashKey Capital to seed the “HashKey XRP Tracker Fund” marks its first dedicated XRP vehicle in Asia. As anchor investor, Ripple Labs underpins this institutional fund, offering a regulated, exchange‑listed avenue for pension funds and asset managers to park capital in XRP without custody headaches. With plans to transition into a fully listed ETF within one to two years, this fund cements Asia as a strategic growth engine. Following Brazil’s inaugural spot XRP ETF, Asia’s tracker fund underscores a global tilt toward mainstream crypto instruments—and the implied demand shock for XRP‑USD could be enormous once onshore mandates and insurance frameworks align.
Price Projections Under Multiple Scenarios
Scenario analyses converge on a multi‑phase upside trajectory:
A breakout above the $2.22 wedge resistance clears the way to retest $3.00 and the 100‑day EMA at $2.38
Fibonacci extensions and historical reaccumulation targets suggest $3.97 (127.2%) and $5.02 (161.8%) are the next logical ceilings
A successful “Jump Across The Creek” in the Wyckoff reaccumulation count projects markup toward $3.55 in Phase D, then a full markup phase to $5+
Should XRP‑USD falter below the $2.00 support, the 200‑day EMA around $1.96 and the April 7 low at $1.62 become magnets for stop hunts before any renewed recovery.
Given the confluence of bullish technical patterns, concentrated whale buying, institutional derivatives entry, Asia ETF innovation, and legal certainty reclaiming market confidence, XRP is set for its next leg higher. The overwhelmingly predominant evidence points to further appreciation rather than downside.
A strategic position in XRP‑USD today aligns with a calculated bullish thesis. With catalysts stacking up and deep liquidity poised to accelerate every uptick, the optimal stance is a buy and hold approach ahead of the anticipated breakouts.
