Trading News Fed’s Independence and Trade Truce Send S&P 500 to 5,525.21 and Nasdaq to 17,382.94

Fed Chair Safe, Tariffs Tamed—Markets Rally Into Earnings and Economic Data

S&P 500 Climbs to 5 525.21, Nasdaq Hits 17 382.94 and Dow Surges to 40 113.50 as Powell’s Independence and Trade Optimism Overcome Mixed Fundamentals

U.S. Equities Kick Off May with Roaring Comeback

U.S. stocks put in their most emphatic five-day surge since January as President Trump’s assurances that he will not remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, coupled with signals that proposed 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods will be scaled back, reversed April’s brutal sell-off. The S&P 500 leaped 4.5 percent, vaulting from the mid-5 200s to close at 5 525.21. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led all majors, rocketing 6.6 percent to 17 382.94. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average, long weighed down by industrial and financials exposure, added 2.5 percent to end at 40 113.50. Volumes climbed as traders rotated back into growth names, seeking to catch an early tilt toward a renewed risk-on regime before this week’s torrid earnings slate and critical economic releases.

Tech Titans Shine Ahead of Mega-Caps’ Turn

Investors piled into technology leaders on Friday after analysts at Apple AAPL reported Services revenue of $25.5 billion—beating estimates by 3 percent—and signalled robust subscriber growth for Apple Music and iCloud Amazon AMZN shares rebounded on reports that Prime membership additions exceeded 28 million in Q1, underscoring the resilience of e-commerce amid brick-and-mortar reopenings.Microsoft MSFT climbed as cloud-segment bookings hit a fresh record of $28 billion, buoyed by AI server deployments. Meta Platforms and Alphabet, which report on Wednesday, are under pressure to match strong user engagement numbers and ad-revenue growth. Traders will scrutinize any commentary on the impact of Apple’s privacy changes on digital advertising.

Corporate Beat and Miss: Tesla and T-Mobile Diverge

Despite reporting a 20 percent drop in automotive revenue and missing adjusted EPS estimates by 40 percent, Tesla TSLA soared 18 percent this week. CEO Elon Musk’s pledge to refocus on Tesla—reducing his role in the Department of Government Efficiency—restored confidence that the energy and AI-driven “Dojo” supercomputer projects would regain momentum. By contrast, AT&T  subsidiary T-Mobile tumbled 11 percent after reporting postpaid net additions of 0.6 million—short of consensus forecasts—and warning of higher churn following its merger integration. Upcoming reports from CVX Chevron LLY Eli Lilly will further test market appetite for energy and health-care exposures.

Mixed Macro Signals: Durable Goods Strength vs. Services Slump

March durable goods orders surged 9.2 percent—driven by a 27 percent jump in transportation equipment—surpassing the 2 percent consensus and underpinning a 0.6 percent rally in the U.S. dollar index. Weekly jobless claims held at a still-tight 222 000, affirming labour-market resilience. Yet S&P Global’s April flash Composite PMI slid to 51.2 from 53.5, its weakest reading since December 2023, as service-sector diffusion plunged to 50.8. The divergence between goods and services highlights how tariff-related cost pressures may be distorting manufacturing and capex decisions. On Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the advance estimate of Q1 GDP is expected to show 2.8 percent annualized growth; traders worry a miss near 2 percent could temper excitement over near-term Fed cuts. Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, with consensus for 180 000 new jobs and an unchanged 3.7 percent unemployment rate, could either cement or derail hopes for a June rate-cut by the Fed.

Fed Dot Plot and Debt Ceiling Hover Over Rates

On the heels of remarks denying any plans to oust Powell, bond yields pulled back from intraday highs—10-year Treasuries slipped six basis points to 4.27 percent—even as primary dealers repositioned for eventual monetary easing. The Fed’s May 1–2 meeting has long been priced out of cutting, but futures markets now assign an 80 percent probability to a 25 basis‐point cut in June. Meanwhile, Washington’s simmering debt-ceiling fight, expected to culminate in late May, poses a flashpoint that could trigger volatility if brinkmanship undermines U.S. creditworthiness.

Dollar, Gold and Oil: Safe Havens Take a Breather

The U.S. dollar index rebounded 0.5 percent to 103.45, lifting off its record peak. XAU/USD pulled back 2.1 percent from $3 400 to trade near $3 310 as partial tariff exemptions for U.S. goods in China and Trump’s comments dampened safe-haven flows. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 1.6 percent to $63.02 a barrel amid growing doubts that global growth can absorb current OPEC+ supply cuts. Copper futures retraced to $4.10 per pound, healing some of April’s commodity exuberance.

Bitcoin and Crypto: Digital Gold’s Big Week

Bitcoin reclaimed the $90 000 mark for the first time since March, surging 12 percent on the back of robust spot ETF inflows—nearly $2 billion in the past week alone—and signs of de-dollarization driving demand for crypto as a cross-border store of value. Ethereum also jumped 9 percent to trade just above $7 200. Traders will watch U.S. Treasury Secretary commentary on crypto regulation, as well as the SEC’s response to pending ETF applications, for the next catalyst.

Asia Pacific Follows U.S. Lead on Trade Optimism

Equities across the region rallied as hopes of a trade détente rippled through. Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.8 percent to 39 120 after the Bank of Japan held policy steady at -0.1 percent, reinforcing dovish messaging that keeps the yen under pressure. The Shanghai Composite rose 1.3 percent on government measures to ease export financing for SMEs. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng advanced 2.2 percent, led by property developers and Tencent supplier stocks. India’s Sensex climbed 1.5 percent as foreign inflows resumed ahead of Parliament’s Budget Session. Thailand’s SET Index added 1.06 percent to 1 159.00, with PTT and Energy Absolute rebounding on energy transition announcements. In Australia, the ASX 200 gained 1.4 percent, buoyed by commodity producers and rate-sensitive REITs.

FX and Emerging Markets: Carry Trades and Currency Plays

Asia’s high-yield FX bloc rallied as the U.S. dollar cooled. USD/JPY rebounded from a seven-month low of 138.20 to trade near 140.00, while AUD/USD rose above 0.6650 on RBA minutes confirming a paused tightening bias. USD/CNY slid beneath 6.88 on reports China will halve tariffs on $50 billion of U.S. imports. BRL outperformed after Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate was held at 12.75 percent, boosting carry-trade flows. Meanwhile, South Africa’s rand strengthened 1.1 percent as investors reassessed commodity-price prospects.

Technical Roadmap: Next Tests for Bulls and Bears

On the S&P 500 daily chart, Friday’s break above the 50-day moving average at 5 488 and the retest of the March pivot at 5 481 sets a measured-move target near 5 748, which coincides with the 200-day MA. Failure to clear 5 600 swiftly could trigger a pullback to 5 330 (20-day MA). The Nasdaq 100’s decisive breach of its 100-day MA at 16 300 opens the path toward 16 900–17 100. A reversal below 16 000 would shift the bias back to a consolidation pattern. Gold’s drop below $3 300 faces support at $3 260; a retest of $3 200 would test bullion bulls’ conviction. Bitcoin’s 200-day MA at $87 500 is now critical support, while a sustained move above $93 000 could clear the way for a challenge of $100 000.

Upcoming Catalysts: Cup and Handle or Setback?

With mega-caps about to report, GDP and NFP data on deck, and the debt-ceiling deadline looming, the coming week is pivotal. A string of strong earnings beats and an upside GDP surprise could fuel a powerful extension toward all-time highs. Conversely, any sign of margin compression from tariffs, a slowdown in consumer spending or political gridlock in Congress over debt could provoke profit-taking and retest April’s lows. Traders should watch key levels—5 600 on the S&P, $3 260 on gold and $87 500 on Bitcoin—to gauge whether this rally has the chops to sustain beyond the calendar turn.