S&P 500 (^GSPC) Climbs 1.6% to 4,950 on Tech Optimism
The benchmark S&P 500 added 1.6%, rallying from a low near 4,880 to close around 4,950. Strength in mega-cap technology names drove the advance, offsetting tariff-related headwinds. Since President Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement, the index had dipped 3.5%, but two days of follow-through buying this week have recaptured much of that lost ground. The break above the 4,930 resistance—its 21-day moving average—signals a potential shift in short-term sentiment, though overhead supply near 5,000 may cap further upside.
Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) Jumps 2.2% as Mega-Cap Stocks Rally
Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite soared 2.2% to roughly 15,200, powered by gains in the “Magnificent Seven.” NVDA repeated a 2.4% advance to $820.15 real-time chart, AMZN climbed 1.8% to $3,950.22 real-time chart, META rose 2.1% to $455.30 real-time chart, TSLA added 2.0% to $260.70 real-time chart, and MSFT ticked 1.9% higher to $415.25 real-time chart. Elevated expectations for AI data-center spending—reinforced by Amazon and Nvidia executives—underpin the sector’s resilience even as trade tension lingers.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) Adds 423 Points Despite IBM Slump
The Dow gained 423 points, or 1.1%, finishing near 40,078 despite a 7% slide in IBM to $230.29 real-time chart after management warned of near-term client hesitation. Procter & Gamble’s 3.5% drop to $159.93 real-time chart also trimmed gains, but robust advances in AAPL, V, and UNP kept the industrial average in positive territory.
Hasbro (HAS) Skyrockets 15.8% on Earnings Beat, Tractor Supply (TSCO) Falters
Hasbro shares jumped 15.75% to $60.99 real-time chart, marking their best day since March 2020. Q1 revenue of $887.1 million and EPS of $1.04 crushed forecasts of $771.1 million and $0.67, respectively. The company held full-year guidance steady amid tariff uncertainty. By contrast, TSCO slid 3.25% to $49.08 real-time chart after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.34 on $3.47 billion in sales, missing Street estimates, and cutting 2025 guidance to $2.00–$2.18 per share.
Mixed Signals on Tariffs and Trade Talks Keep Traders on Edge
Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce denied any ongoing negotiations with Washington, urging the U.S. to scrap “unilateral” tariffs even as President Trump expressed willingness to pursue a “big deal.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comment that the U.S. has an “opportunity for a big deal” has stoked oscillating optimism. Tariffs on Chinese imports remain at 145%, and recent reports of considering exemptions for automakers add to the complexity. This push-pull narrative underlies market volatility, with investors hesitant to fully trust rallies without concrete progress.
Services PMI Slumps to 51.4, Fueling Rate-Cut Bets and Dollar Pullback
April’s flash S&P Global Services PMI plunged to 51.4 from 54.4, pulling the Composite PMI to 51.2. Slower growth expectations nudged Fed-cut odds for June up to 60%, contributing to a modest pullback in the U.S. Dollar Index to 99.70. Fed Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that tariff impacts remain unclear, delaying definitive rate-cut decisions until late summer, reinforcing a “wait-and-see” Fed stance as labor data evolves.
Oil Holds Near $86 as Supply Cuts Offset Tariff-Driven Demand Concerns
NYMEX WTI closed Q1 at $83.17 and traded near $86.50 on Thursday, up 16.1% in Q1 despite a 10.7% decline in 2023. ICE Brent rallied 13.5% in Q1 to $87.45, inching toward $90.55. OPEC+ and Russia’s extended cuts, U.S. SPR at 363.6 million barrels, and spring driving season underpin the bullish view, even as U.S. production hits 13.1 million bpd. Crude’s resilience supports energy stocks and XLE’s 12.6% Q1 gain.
Gold Spikes to $3,340 as Risk-Off Sentiment Resurfaces
Gold breached $3,320 on Thursday, rebounding from a slight midweek pullback, as traders seek havens amid tariff standoffs and sticky yields. The yellow metal remains in parabolic mode for much of 2025, with prior resistance at $3,145–$3,167 now potential support should prices correct.
Retail Investor Pessimism Peaks, AAII Sentiment Hits Extremes
The AAII weekly survey showed 54.6% of retail investors now bearish—near the third-highest reading ever—and only 8.6% bullish. Neutral responses rose to 26.7%, reflecting wariness around tariffs and economic data. Historically, such extremes can presage counter-trend rallies, though confirmation is essential.
Housing Market Cooling and IMF Cuts Asia Growth Forecast
Existing home sales plunged 5.9% in March to 4.02 million units—the weakest March since 2009—while median prices hit $403,700, up 2.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the IMF trimmed Asia’s 2025 GDP forecast from 4.6% to 3.9%, citing trade-policy headwinds. Central banks in the region retain room to ease, but global export tariffs pose a persistent drag.
Housekeeping: New Lows, Volatility Term Structure and Technical Outlook
NYSE new lows have abated, but equity-only put-call ratios remain neutral. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) holds above its three-month futures, marking a prolonged inverted term structure—the longest since March 2020—indicating skepticism about sustained rallies. SPX must clear 5,000 to negate its downtrend of lower highs and lower lows; failure to hold above 4,900 risks another leg down toward 4,850 support.
Positioning and Rating
With mega-cap tech fueling a significant bounce yet tariff uncertainty still unresolved, selective exposure is key. Bullish on NVDA and AMZN for their AI data-center tailwinds, Hold on broad equity indices given mixed macro signals, and Cautious on tariff-sensitive names like IBM and TSCO. A tilt toward resilient income generators and dispersion trades in volatility may offer the best risk-reward in this choppy environment.
