XRP (XRP-USD) Price Analysis: Will Ripple Break Out or Continue Downward?
XRP Faces Heavy Selling Pressure as Price Drops Below $2.50
XRP (XRP-USD) has seen significant volatility in recent days, with the price currently trading at $2.5141, marking a 2.85% decline in the past 24 hours. The recent downward pressure comes as XRP failed to hold above $2.5646, a key resistance level, and is now testing local support at $2.4702. If selling pressure continues, XRP could retest the $2.40 support zone, a critical level that could dictate the short-term direction of the token.
On the hourly chart, XRP’s price action shows a clear rejection at resistance, with a series of lower highs indicating increased bearish sentiment. The volume profile remains weak, further confirming that neither buyers nor sellers are dominating the market, leading to a period of consolidation. If this pattern holds, XRP could drift lower toward the $2.20 mark before making another move.
XRP Price Crashes After Hong Kong Excludes It From Regulatory List
A major catalyst behind XRP’s recent decline was Hong Kong’s decision to exclude XRP from its list of authorized digital assets, causing the token to drop by over 15% in a single day. This exclusion has raised serious concerns about XRP’s future regulatory standing and its ability to gain traction in major financial hubs.
This move came at a time when the crypto market was already under pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD) also experiencing significant declines. Institutional investors appear to be scaling back exposure to XRP amid regulatory uncertainty, which has only intensified following Hong Kong’s announcement.
Can an XRP ETF Approval Bring Institutional Demand?
One of the biggest long-term catalysts for XRP remains the potential for a Spot XRP ETF approval. While Bitcoin and Ethereum have already secured ETF products, XRP’s regulatory battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to cast doubt on whether a similar product will be introduced.
Analysts believe that an approved XRP ETF could inject billions of dollars in liquidity into the market, boosting demand and stabilizing price volatility. However, given the current legal landscape, approval remains uncertain. A favorable ruling in Ripple’s case against the SEC could reignite interest and push XRP toward the $3.50 to $4.00 range in the short term.
Ripple’s Escrow Unlock Triggers Supply Concerns
Adding to the market’s anxiety, Ripple recently unlocked 1 billion XRP from its escrow accounts, flooding the market with additional supply. Historically, these releases have led to short-term price declines, as investors worry about increased selling pressure.
This time, however, the reaction was even more severe, with XRP tumbling 24.6% following the escrow release. The key concern among traders is whether Ripple will sell a significant portion of these newly unlocked tokens. Typically, Ripple returns 75-80% of its unlocked supply to escrow, but any deviation from this pattern could exacerbate selling pressure.
XRP’s Technical Outlook: Bearish or Ready for a Reversal?
From a technical perspective, XRP is at a pivotal point. The $2.40 level has emerged as a key support zone, with strong buying interest observed at this price. If XRP fails to hold above this level, the next downside target could be $1.88, followed by a deeper move toward $1.34.
Conversely, a break above $2.70 could shift momentum in favor of bulls, allowing XRP to test the $3.00 to $3.20 resistance range. A decisive move above $3.40 would confirm a renewed uptrend, potentially pushing XRP toward $5.85 as projected by Elliott Wave analysts.
Key technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.11, signaling that XRP is approaching oversold territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, suggesting further downside risk. However, long-term moving averages indicate a possible support buildup, with the 200-day EMA at $1.62 acting as a major buffer against deeper losses.
Regulatory Pressure and Market Sentiment: Will the SEC Case End in Ripple’s Favor?
Regulatory uncertainty continues to overshadow XRP’s price action. The SEC’s pending appeal in the Ripple lawsuit remains a major overhang, with traders closely watching for any developments that could impact the token’s future.
If the SEC drops its appeal or Ripple secures a favorable ruling, XRP could rally back above $3.50, as legal clarity would remove a major barrier to institutional adoption. However, a continued legal battle could keep prices under pressure, with further declines likely if the regulatory landscape remains hostile.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce recently acknowledged the agency’s missteps in handling crypto regulation, sparking hope that a more balanced regulatory framework could emerge. Ripple’s legal team has also been vocal about seeking clearer guidelines, which could ultimately benefit XRP’s long-term growth.
Can Ripple Secure a Place in the U.S. Crypto Reserve?
There has been speculation that XRP could be considered for inclusion in a U.S. strategic crypto reserve, given its low transaction fees, scalability, and institutional integration. However, this remains purely speculative at this point, as regulatory concerns continue to cloud its long-term outlook.
If XRP is eventually recognized as a key player in the digital payment ecosystem, its adoption by major financial institutions could drive long-term demand, potentially positioning it as a serious competitor to traditional payment networks.
XRP Price Forecast: Will the Bullish Case Hold?
Despite the recent downturn, some analysts remain optimistic about XRP’s future. If market conditions stabilize and XRP holds above $2.40, a rebound toward $2.80-$3.00 could be in play. However, failure to defend this level could send XRP tumbling below $2.00, with bears eyeing the $1.88 and $1.34 support zones.
At this stage, XRP is a HOLD, as regulatory uncertainty and supply concerns continue to weigh on sentiment. A break above $3.00 would signal renewed strength, while a move below $2.40 could open the door to further downside. Traders should closely monitor SEC developments, ETF approvals, and institutional buying activity to gauge the next major move in XRP’s price trajectory.
