XRP-USD at Critical Resistance After 8.3% Weekly Gain
XRP-USD settled around $2.24 early Monday, having tacked on 8.3 percent over the past week. That advance saw the token decisively clear its 200-day Exponential Moving Average at $1.98 and close above last week’s key barrier at $2.23. The rally was led by the launch of Brazil’s first XRP spot ETF and buoyed further by U.S. futures-ETF approvals, putting XRP at its highest level since early April. Yet XRP-USD now confronts stiff supply near $2.30, making the next few trading sessions pivotal for determining whether bulls can convert momentum into a fresh trend or risk a retreat toward support at $2.11.
ETF-Driven Surge and Regulatory Milestones
Last Friday’s debut of Hashdex/Genial’s XRPH11 ETF on Brazil’s B3 exchange marked a watershed moment, with fund inflows topping $50 million on day one according to exchange filings. That was followed this week by the SEC’s green light for three ProShares XRP futures ETFs, adding leverage and inverse plays to U.S. institutional toolkits. Meanwhile, Polymarket odds of a U.S. spot XRP ETF approval have climbed to 74 percent, and Brazil’s regulator registered over $2 billion in cumulative crypto-ETF assets in April alone. On the legal front, Ripple’s $50 million settlement with the SEC—paired with the Commission’s decision to drop its appeal—finally puts the long-running lawsuit in the rear-view mirror, freeing XRP to attract fresh capital.
Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Bias
Technical studies on the daily chart reveal XRP-USD riding a bullish wave. The Relative Strength Index sits at 57, up from 47 last week, signaling renewed buying pressure without yet reaching overbought extremes. The 50-day Simple Moving Average at $2.18 now offers dynamic support, while the 200-day SMA at $1.98 anchors the longer-term uptrend. An Ichimoku Cloud configuration remains constructive: price trades above the cloud, the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are aligned in favor of buyers, and the future cloud is green. A break above the short-term ceiling at $2.30 and the April swing high of $2.33 could open the path toward the next barrier at $2.50 and the psychological round-number zone at $3.00.
Network Activity and On-Chain Fundamentals
On-chain metrics bolster the technical case. Daily active addresses interacting with the XRP Ledger have climbed to over 800,000, the highest since January’s peak, and transaction volume surged to $15 billion last Thursday—up 40 percent week-on-week. Meanwhile, wallet inflows totalling 838 million XRP in a single day pointed to renewed accumulation ahead of the ETF launches. Stablecoin issuance on XRPL also rose by 12 percent in April, underscoring growing demand for tokenization use-cases beyond pure speculation.
Comparative Performance with BTC and ETH
=XRP’s 8.3 percent weekly gain trails Bitcoin’s 10.1 percent and Ethereum’s 12.5 percent rallies, but this outperformance cycle could shift as XRP remains attractively valued near 35 times forward earnings analogues versus peers. Bitcoin reclaimed the $90,000 zone after ETF inflows topped $3 billion last week, while ETH holds around $1,770 after stalling at the $1,861 daily resistance. XRP’s stronger rebound off its 200-day EMA suggests it may lead the next leg higher as traders rotate from the major tokens into smaller-cap alts with fresh catalysts.
Market Sentiment and Institutional Flows
ETF data from CoinShares show XRP-related products saw net inflows exceeding $150 million in the past five trading days, even as broader crypto ETPs took in only $50 million. Surveyed institutional allocators report an average target position of 4.5 percent in XRP over the next 12 months—up from 2 percent in January—reflecting growing confidence in Ripple’s compliance and cross-border payments focus. Sentiment indicators such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index have jumped from 32 to 57 this week, flipping from “fear” to “neutral” territory.
My Trading Verdict: Bullish on Breakout Above $2.30
XRP-USD’s current trading range between $2.11 and $2.30 will define its next directional leg. A clear daily close above $2.30 with above-average volume would validate a breakout, targeting $2.50 and then $3.00 on follow-through. Protective stops near $2.11, the low of last Thursday, manage risk if sellers reassert control. Given the confluence of ETF catalysts, on-chain strength, and technical alignment, I rate XRP-USD as a buy on a successful breakout attempt—while a failure to hold $2.11 would shift the near-term outlook to neutral.
